Europe Must Act Now to Secure Ukraine’s (And Its) Future
By: Julian Braithwaite, Professor Michael Kelly, Katie Hetherington
As the United States bypasses both Ukraine and Europe to negotiate directly with Russia on an end to its war of aggression in Ukraine, Europe faces a stark reality: a settlement could be imposed that weakens Ukraine and undermines European security. While U.S. policy is still in flux, Europe cannot afford to be a passive observer. Instead, it must adopt a similarly transactional approach, creating irreversible commitments to Ukraine’s future that make it harder for Washington and Moscow to strike a deal that leaves Kyiv vulnerable. To shape the course of negotiations, Europe must establish facts on the ground that bind its security to Ukraine’s survival.
A European Stabilization Force
First, European governments should agree with Kyiv to deploy European forces as part of a stabilization force. This presence would give Europe a direct stake in Ukraine’s security and ensure that any future agreement considers European interests. European troops should be clustered around Ukraine’s 10 largest cities still under Ukrainian control (from Kyiv to Odesa), thereby preventing Russia from attacking them with drones or rockets for fear of hitting NATO troops stationed there, albeit not under the NATO flag.
Fast-Tracking EU Accession
Second, Ukraine’s integration into the European Union must be fast-tracked, providing Kyiv with tangible economic and security benefits that Russia cannot undo. Although Ukraine has some way to go in further aligning with EU requirements regarding the rule of law and democratic institutions and rooting out corruption, the Zelenskyy government has made tremendous strides – certainly similar to those made by Romania and Bulgaria on their accession. By accelerating Ukraine’s EU accession and implementing concrete measures such as increased market access, investment guarantees, and security cooperation, Europe would signal its unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Leveraging Frozen Assets
Third, Europe must leverage Russia’s frozen assets. This is one thing Europe controls directly. Most of the Russian Central Bank’s $300 billion is located in Europe, the interest of which is being routed to rebuild Ukraine. The release of these assets should be made conditional on a settlement that guarantees Ukraine’s territorial integrity and security. If an unjust peace is imposed, Europe should repurpose these assets to strengthen its own defense, support Ukraine’s long-term resilience, and pay for European stabilization forces located in Ukraine.
A Unified European Defense Posture
Finally, while the withdrawal of U.S. security commitments to Europe is not yet certain, Europe must prepare for a unified European defense posture without U.S. backing. First, European defense industries must scale up long-term arms production for Ukraine. This ensures sustained military support that is independent of U.S. political cycles and strengthens Europe’s strategic autonomy. Germany’s new Chancellor has committed to do so, following similar French and British commitments. Second, Europe’s two nuclear powers—the U.K. and France—can use their nuclear weapons as a deterrent of their own, underpinning European security independent of U.S. security guarantees. Saber-rattling is in no way endorsed, but Moscow should be reminded that Paris and London’s nuclear weapons are not under American control.
Exerting Pressure on Russia and United States
Beyond bolstering Ukraine, Europe can exert pressure on both Russia and the United States to ensure a fair settlement. What might this look like? On the Russian front, loopholes in energy sanctions must be closed to prevent the backdoor export of oil and gas via third countries such as India—which mixes discounted Russian oil with Saudi oil so that it is no longer Russian and then upsells the derived petroleum products back to the U.S. and others.
On the U.S. front, Europe must remember that it has leverage as well. If Washington pressures Ukraine into an unfair deal, European nations should shift defense procurement away from American suppliers, reducing reliance on the U.S. defense industry. And much like the U.S., Europe can also use trade policy as a bargaining chip, by linking cooperation on China and digital regulation to American support for Ukraine’s full sovereignty. The deal President Trump struck with President Zelenskyy to secure Ukraine’s valuable minerals vaguely implies American protection for Ukraine, but this will only last during the mining process. Once the minerals are extracted, the Trump-run United States will no longer have any interest in protecting Ukraine, and any protection there was will most certainly be withdrawn.
Decisive European Action
Europe does not need U.S. permission to act. Indeed, if Europe acts now with both vision and conviction, they can influence the endgame for the war in Ukraine. By creating leverage, establishing clear commitments, and taking decisive action, European leaders can ensure that any negotiated settlement—whether led by Washington or not—secures Ukraine’s future and safeguards European security for the long term. The time to act is now.