Policy Planning White Paper: 

The Southern Question

Statement of Purpose

This White Paper provides an analysis of public perception on how to address the political, economic, and social demands of the Yemenis living in the South, and surveys what they most prefer for the future of Southern Yemen, a lace of diverse groups and political actors with different goals and interests. Though both qualitative and quantitative surveys, this paper addresses questions of political leadership, economic status, and overall security for those in the South, and seeks to provide clarity on what a future Yemeni state may look like, based upon public opinion.

Executive Summary 

International observers understand that the “southern question” — how to address the political, economic, and social demands of Yemenis living in the South — is central to the future of a unified Republic of Yemen. Less well understood is whether the answer to the southern question will entail an independent South Yemen, and if so, how political support for it might coalesce. South Yemen was an independent state known as the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) prior to 1990, and longstanding internal identity conflicts were central to its civil war in 1986. The resolution of the southern question, therefore, is unlikely to be simple since there is little unity, competition and some enmity among southern political actors. The fight for equitable representation in the South could amplify historic struggles between these social, political, and identity groups. 

The Amplifying Pathways to Peace in Yemen (APPY) program collected quantitative and qualitative data from 2019-2021 in Yemen, including in the eight southern governorates discussed below. (See Annex I, Methodology).1 While the surveys did not include questions related to individual desires for a future state, they asked in-depth questions related to security, the economy, and who Yemenis preferred to be involved in peace negotiations, all of which can help identify public sentiment about leadership. Significantly, in August 2021, respondents were asked about public acceptance of leading southern secessionist political groups, providing a glimpse of the potential for fragmentation within the South, as well as possible policy initiatives to stop this process. 

Recommendations for policymakers to propose to actors in Yemen include: 

• Following the example of the newly constituted Presidential Leadership Council (PLC),2 encourage the Southern Transitional Council (STC) and other southern factions to form political parties designed to work within the framework of a single Yemeni state. 

• Update local council registries as a way of preparing for local council elections, improving local authority, and increasing legitimacy in local governance. 

• Promote political unity in Hadramaut by encouraging the Republic of Yemen Government (through the Presidential Leadership Council), Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to coordinate efforts there. 

• To address economic hardship in a way that promotes unity, encourage the UAE to channel aid into governorates through either local or district level authorities, or through the PLC.

About PILPG’s Policy Planning Initiative

PILPG’s Policy Planning Initiative supports the development of long term, strategic policy planning that is crucial to international accountability, global conflict resolution, and the establishment of international peace.  The Initiative provides timely and accurate policy planning analysis and work product on pressing and future policy conundrums by leveraging PILPG’s deep network of talent within the international legal and policy communities and experience with its pro bono clients globally. PILPG Policy Planning focuses on advising policymakers, policy shapers, and engaged stakeholders on pressing issues within the arenas of international law, war crimes prosecution, and conflict resolution efforts. This includes identifying and addressing gaps within existing policies, anticipating key conundrums and questions that will riddle future policy decisions, applying lessons learned from comparative state practice, and proactively producing and sharing work product to inform such policies and avoid crisis decision making.